The News-Sentinel and News Channel 15 contracted with Research 2000, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Maryland, to conduct a pre-election survey in the 3rd Congressional District, which includes Fort Wayne.

Democrat Mike Montagano buys lots of aggressive advertising in his race to represent the 3rd District in Congress. He's well-funded; he reported spending $590,000 through the end of September, and his strengthening position in the race has brought an infusion of money from national labor unions and Democratic funders.

Our polling numbers show he is only 5 percent behind Republican incumbent Mark Souder, at 40 percent to 45 percent support for the candidates. And a Libertarian candidate, William Larsen, is in the race, tallying the support of 4 percent of likely voters who otherwise would probably be Souder supporters.

But Souder is a resilient, highly skilled candidate who's likely to retain his seat, despite Montagano's funding and the anti-Republican tide that has turned Indiana into a toss-up or a Barack Obama-leaning state.

There are at least three important reasons Montagano still has a tough road, even in a year shaping up to be terrible for the GOP:

♦Souder's 14 years in Congress give him an edge in name recognition that's tough for a newcomer like the 27-year-old to surmount, said Leonard Williams, professor of political science at Manchester College in North Manchester. “More often than not, you'll see undecideds moving toward the incumbent. That's the name they know,” he said.

♦Northeast Indiana continues to be an exceptionally conservative part of the state. The evidence lies not so much in Souder's 45 percent support in our poll - diminished as it is by Libertarian Larsen's presence in the race - as in the much stronger support Republican presidential nominee John McCain pulls.

Although recent statewide polls generally show Democratic presidential nominee Obama running slightly ahead of McCain, McCain was 15 points ahead of Obama in our poll.

Yes, 11 percent of respondents said they were undecided, but “my guess - if they break - it will be in Souder's direction,” said Williams, “given the partisan leanings of the district as reflected in the presidential race.”

♦There are more undecided voters in the congressional race than in the presidential race - 11 percent vs. 7 percent. The most conservative voters disenchanted with Souder may already have lined up behind Larsen as a protest vote. But these undecided voters apparently find the congressional race more of a dilemma than the presidential race.

“I would think the worry is about Montagano's lack of experience. He hasn't made the sale,” Williams said.

“This is just more confirmation about how much Mark Souder is struggling to relate to voters,” the Montagano campaign said in a statement it released on the polling. “It's not surprising, given his consistent votes in Washington against middle- class and working families. He voted against protecting the middle class from a tax increase, he voted continually to protect tax breaks for oil companies and corporations, and he voted to cut veterans' benefits.”

Souder did not directly remark on The News-Sentinel/News Channel 15 poll, but he released a statement this week on his own polling. Souder's news release said a poll of 400 registered voters conducted by The Winston Group on Oct. 15-16 showed he held a 50-41 percent lead over Montagano. Despite the strengths The News-Sentinel/News Channel 15 poll reveal in Souder's favor, it is shaping up to be his closest race ever, closer than his 54-46 victory over former Fort Wayne City Councilman Tom Hayhurst in 2006.

Funding is key. Montagano was recently added to a Democratic Party priority list for financial support because of signs of GOP weakness here. Commanding as McCain's 53-38 percent lead over Obama appears, it's dwarfed by the 68-31 split between Republican President Bush and Democrat nominee John Kerry in 2004 in the 3rd District.

And as Andy Downs, director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at IPFW noted, a year when Republicans feel compelled to send their vice-presidential nominee to normally safely Republican Indiana in the closing days of the race is a great backdrop for a Democratic challenger.

Another factor to give Montagano supporters hope: Although Souder is much better known here, his “favorable” rating in our poll was only a little higher than Montagano's. Forty-six percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Souder, while 43 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Montagano elicited a favorable opinion from 41 percent of respondents, and only 29 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him.

Most telling: Only 11 percent of those polled said they had no opinion of Souder, but 30 percent had no opinion of Montagano. In other words, Montagano has a larger pool of likely voters who still haven't decided what to make of him.